肯尼迪的计量经济学原理A_Guide_to_Econometrics__6e_Kennedy |
Preface x
Dedication xii 1 Introduction 1 1 . 1 What is Econometrics? 1 1 .2 The Disturbance Term 2 1 . 3 Estimates and Estimators 4 1 .4 Good and Preferred Estimators 5 General Notes 6 Technical Notes 10 2 Criteria for Estimators 11 2. 1 Introduction 1 1 2.2 Computational Cost 1 1 2.3 Least Squares 1 2 2.4 Highest R2 1 3 2.5 Unbiasedness 1 4 2.6 Efficiency 1 6 2.7 Mean Square Error 1 7 2.8 Asymptotic Properties 18 2.9 Maximum Likelihood 2 1 2. 1 0 Monte Carlo Studies 22 2. 1 1 Adding Up 25 General Notes 26 Technical Notes 3 2 3 The Classical Linear Regression Model 40 3 . 1 Textbooks as Catalogs 40 3 .2 The Five Assumptions 4 1 v vi Contents 3 . 3 The OLS Estimator in the CLR Model 43 General Notes 44 Technical Notes 47 4 Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing 51 4. 1 Introduction 5 1 4.2 Testing a Single Hypothesis: the t Test 5 1 4.3 Testing a Joint Hypothesis: the F Test 5 2 4.4 Interval Estimation for a Parameter Vector 54 4.5 LR, W, and LM Statistics 56 4.6 Bootstrapping 58 General Notes 59 Technical Notes 67 5 Specification 71 5 . 1 Introduction 7 1 5 . 2 Three Methodologies 72 5.3 General Principles for Specification 75 5.4 Misspecification Tests/Diagnostics 76 5 . 5 R2 Again 79 General Notes 8 1 Technical Notes 89 6 Violating Assumption One: Wrong Regressors, Nonlinearities, and Parameter Inconstancy 93 6. 1 Introduction 93 6.2 Incorrect Set of Independent Variables 93 6.3 Nonlinearity 95 6.4 Changing Parameter Values 97 General Notes 1 00 Technical Notes 1 06 7 Violating Assumption Two: Nonzero Expected Disturbance 109 General Notes 1 1 1 8 Violating Assumption Three: Nonspherical Disturbances 1 12 8. 1 Introduction 1 1 2 8.2 Consequences of Violation 1 1 3 8.3 Heteroskedasticity 1 1 5 8.4 Autocorrelated Disturbances 1 18 8.5 Generalized Method of Moments 1 22 General Notes 1 23 Technical Notes 1 29 9 Violating Assumption Four: Instrumental Variable Estimation 137 9 . 1 Introduction 1 37 9.2 The IV Estimator 14 1 9 . 3 IV Issues 1 44 Contents vii General Notes 1 46 Technical Notes 1 5 1 10 Violating Assumption Four: Measurement Errors and Autoregression 157 1 0. l Errors in Variables 1 5 7 1 0.2 Autoregression 1 60 General Notes 1 63 Technical Notes 1 67 1 1 Violating Assumption Four: Simultaneous Equations 171 1 1 . 1 Introduction 1 7 1 1 1 . 2 Identification 1 7 3 1 1 .3 Single-Equation Methods 1 76 1 1 .4 Systems Methods 1 80 General Notes 18 1 Technical Notes 186 12 Violating Assumption Five: Multicollinearity 192 1 2. l Introduction 1 92 1 2.2 Consequences 1 9 3 1 2. 3 Detecting Multicollinearity 1 94 1 2.4 What To Do 1 96 General Notes 1 98 Technical Notes 202 13 Incorporating Extraneous Information 203 1 3 . 1 Introduction 203 1 3 .2 Exact Restrictions 203 1 3 . 3 Stochastic Restrictions 204 1 3 .4 Pre-Test Estimators 204 1 3 .5 Extraneous Information and MSE 206 General Notes 207 Technical Notes 2 1 1 1 4 The Bayesian Approach 213 1 4 . 1 Introduction 2 1 3 1 4.2 What is a Bayesian Analysis? 2 1 3 1 4.3 Advantages of the Bayesian Approach 2 1 6 1 4.4 Overcoming Practitioners' Complaints 2 1 7 General Notes 220 Technical Notes 226 15 Dummy Variables 232 1 5 . 1 Introduction 232 1 5.2 Interpretation 233 1 5 . 3 Adding Another Qualitative Variable 234 1 5 .4 Interacting with Quantitative Variables 235 Vlll Contents 1 5 .5 Observation-Specific Dummies 236 General Notes 237 Technical Notes 240 16 Qualitative Dependent Variables 241 1 6 . 1 Dichotomous Dependent Variables 24 1 1 6.2 Polychotomous Dependent Variables 244 1 6. 3 Ordered Logit/Probit 245 1 6.4 Count Data 246 General Notes 246 Technical Notes 254 17 Limited Dependent Variables 262 17 . 1 Introduction 262 17 .2 The Tobit Model 263 1 7 . 3 Sample Selection 265 1 7 . 4 Duration Models 267 General Notes 269 Technical Notes 273 18 Panel Data 281 18. 1 Introduction 28 1 18.2 Allowing for Different Intercepts 282 1 8 . 3 Fixed Versus Random Effects 284 1 8.4 Short Run Versus Long Run 286 18.5 Long, Narrow Panels 287 General Notes 288 Technical Notes 292 19 Time Series Econometrics 296 1 9 . 1 Introduction 296 1 9.2 ARIMA Models 297 1 9 . 3 VARs 298 1 9 .4 Error Correction Models 299 1 9 . 5 Testing for Unit Roots 3 0 1 1 9.6 Cointegration 302 General Notes 3 04 Technical Notes 3 1 4 20 Forecasting 331 20. 1 Introduction 3 3 1 20.2 Causal Forecasting/Econometric Models 3 3 2 20.3 Time Series Analysis 3 3 3 20.4 Forecasting Accuracy 334 General Notes 3 3 5 Technical Notes 342 21 Robust Estimation 2 1 . 1 Introduction 2 1 .2 Outliers and Influential Observations 2 1 .3 Guarding Against Influential Observations 2 1 .4 Artificial Neural Networks 2 1 .5 Nonparametric Estimation General Notes Technical Notes 22 Applied Econometrics 22. 1 Introduction 22.2 The Ten Commandments of Applied Econometrics 22.3 Getting the Wrong Sign 22.4 Common Mistakes 22.5 What do Practitioners Need to Know? General Notes Technical Notes 23 Computational Considerations 23 . 1 Introduction 23.2 Optimizing via a Computer Search 2 3 . 3 Estimating Integrals via Simulation 23.4 Drawing Observations from Awkward Distributions General Notes Technical Notes Appendix A: Sampling Distributions, 链接:https://pan.baidu.com/s/1oX-vqyHaTlaXnmIzGp8NCA
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