Iran's presidential election
伊朗总统选举
Back to the future?
回归未来？
Feb 12th 2009 | CAIRO
From The Economist print edition
A belligerent president is at last being challenged by a pragmatic reformist
一个好斗的总统最终遭到了一个务实改革者的挑战
MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD, Iran’s president, faces a disgruntled people, an election in June, and now a strong new challenger for his job. This week Muhammad Khatami, a jovial, 65-year-old reformist cleric, who is more softly spoken and gentler-looking than the incumbent, finally decided to throw his turban into the ring. He previously served two terms as president, from 1997 to 2005.
伊朗总统内贾德面临的是不满的民众、六月份举行的大选，现在更有位强大的对他职位的新挑战者。本周，穆罕默德•哈塔米，一位和善的65岁改革派教士（比教士更细声细语和温和），终于决定参加大选。从1997年2005年，他曾两次连任伊朗总统。
At the time, Mr Khatami’s double electoral triumph was seen as a rebuke to the harder ideologues who had dominated revolutionary Iran’s hybrid theo-democracy. His fractious reformists, however, proved no match for the conservatives entrenched in the power structure. Not only did they block most reforms. They also succeeded in pinning blame for their failure on the reformists themselves and in alienating enough voters to pave the way for Mr Ahmadinejad’s ascent.
当时，哈塔米两次选举获胜被视为对强硬意识形态拥护者的痛斥，他们曾控制了革命的伊朗的混合神权民主。然而，哈塔米派改革激进，同权利架构中已确立地位的 保守派格格不入。保守派不仅阻碍大部分改革，而且成功地将自己的失败归罪于改革者，并离间了足够选民，为内贾德的上台铺好了路。
Mr Khatami’s return to the fray raises the hopes of the many Iranians who have chafed under Mr Ahmadinejad’s rule. His spendthrift public-works programmes, fuelled by high oil prices and designed to impress the poor, have instead sparked high inflation that has eroded middle-class purchasing power. A harsh clampdown on dissent, combined with tightened rules for “Islamic” behaviour and the belligerent language that has provoked international hostility, have stoked grim memories for many of the darker days immediately after the Islamic revolution of 1979, a time of economic hardship, diplomatic isolation and drastically reduced personal freedom.
哈塔米加入大选，使许多恼恨内贾德统治的伊朗人有了希望。在高油价支撑和取信穷人下，内贾德启动了很多挥霍性的公共工程项目，但却导致了高通胀，降低了中 产阶层的购买力。对不同政见者的残酷压制、更严格地实施“伊斯兰”式统治，以及好斗的语言激起了国际社会的敌意，也挑起了人们对随着1979年伊斯兰革命 而来的许多黑暗日子的糟糕记忆，那是一个经济艰难、外交孤立和人身自由大幅减少的时代。
Mr Ahmadinejad’s populism still wins admirers and gets the backing of the hawkish security apparatus and the courts. But simmering public discontent and the rising anxiety that has followed the oil-price collapse now worry even his fellow conservatives, to the point where it is not clear whether the president will end up as their favoured candidate in June. Other contenders, such as Ali Larijani, the parliament’s speaker, could get the crucial blessing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has so far favoured Mr Ahmadinejad’s conservatism but has been known to make pragmatic concessions to public opinion in the name of “preserving the revolution”.
内贾德的平民论仍然获得了崇拜者，并得到了鹰派安全部门和法庭的支持。但即将爆发的公愤和随油价下滑而增长的不安，现在也使他的保守派同党感到担忧。扼要 地说，六月份最后当选的总统是否是他们中意的那个现在也不清楚。诸如议长拉里贾尼等其他竞争者，还能从最高领袖哈梅内伊那里得到庇佑。哈梅内伊到现在还看 好内贾德的保守主义，但在“保留革命“的名义下，也据说向公众做了一些务实性的让步。
The recent softening of Mr Ahmadinejad’s tone regarding Iran’s biggest foreign-policy challenge, relations with America, may be an opening gambit in the looming election campaign as much as it is a simple response to early overtures from President Barack Obama. “The Iranian nation is ready for talks, but in a fair atmosphere with mutual respect,” Mr Ahmadinejad told the crowd in Tehran’s Freedom Square during celebrations for the Islamic revolution’s 30th anniversary, on February 10th. In the same speech, he proclaimed Iran a superpower, trumpeting its development of nuclear and rocket technology as symbols of national virility. Mr Ahmadinejad, it seems, is out to prove that his punchy chauvinism, rather than Mr Khatami’s quiet diplomacy, will win the Islamic Republic its rightful place in the sun.
近来，在针对伊美关系这个伊朗最大的外交政策挑战时，内贾德声调也缓和了许多。但这可能是他在迫在眉睫的竞选运动中的公开策略，或者是他对美国总统奥巴马 前期试探的简单回应。2月10日，在纪念伊斯兰革命30周年集会时，他对德黑兰自由广场上的群众说：“伊朗准备谈判，但必须在相互尊重的公平气氛中进行。 ”在同一演说中，他宣称伊朗是一个超级大国。大肆宣扬核技术和火箭技术的发展是国家壮大的标志。内贾德似乎不能证明他强烈的沙文主义，而是哈塔米平静的外 交政策，能为伊朗伊斯兰共和国在阳光下赢得理应享有的地位。 |
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