1、Eat, smoke and die early
肥胖、吸烟、寿命缩短
Apr 24th 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
Worrying news about poor American women's lifespans
贫困美国妇女寿命：令人担忧
FEW numbers tell a happier story than those that measure life expectancy. An American born in 1900 could expect to live 47 years. Thanks to colossal improvements in sanitation and medicine, that figure is now 75 for men and 80 for women. And the poorest Americans have gained the most: blacks, for example, live more than twice as long now as they did a century ago.
人类寿命增长速度如此之快使其他任何数字相形见绌。 1900年美国人的预期寿命为47岁。 随着医疗卫生服务迅速发展，现在美国人的预期寿命为：男性75岁，女性80岁。 最贫穷的美国人寿命增长最快。 举个例个来说，美国黑人的预期寿命和一个世纪以前相比翻了一翻。
So it is both alarming and surprising when life expectancy falls, even for a small part of the population. Yet that is what some researchers at Harvard have found. They looked at death rates by county, having corrected for migration and merged sparsely populated ones so that America's 3,141 counties became 2,068 “county units”.
所以，即使是一小部分人的预期寿命出现了下降，也足以使人震惊、令人担忧。 但哈佛研究人员的调查显示美国人的寿命确实出现了下降。 通过除去移民因素，合并人口较少的县，他们把美国的3141个县分为了2068个“县级单位”；再调查每个县的死亡率。
For most Americans, life expectancy continues merrily to rise. But between 1983 and 1999, it fell significantly (by about a year) for women in 180 county units, and stagnated in another 783. Men fared less poorly: their life expectancy fell significantly in only 11 county units, and stagnated in another 48.
结果发现，大多数美国人寿命有所增加。 然而在1983到1999年之间，女性预期寿命在180个县级单位明显缩短，在另外783个县级单位停滞不前。男性的情况要好一些， 他们的预期寿命值在11个县级单位明显下降，在48个县级单位保持不变。
Put differently, life expectancy appears to have either stagnated or fallen slightly for some 4% of American men and 19% of women. The main culprits are diseases linked to smoking or obesity, such as lung cancer and diabetes. The crucial question is whether this represents a blip or the start of a trend.
就是说，4%的男性和19%的女性的预期寿命值要么保持不变，要么小幅下降。 造成寿命缩短的罪魁祸首是吸烟和肥胖造成的疾病，例如肺癌、糖尿病。 关键问题是这到底是个暂时现象还是会一直持续下去。
Majid Ezzati, one of the study's authors, says it is too soon to say. An optimist would point out that women took up smoking later than men. It was not until after the second world war that they started puffing at anything like the male rate. The bulge of poor women now dying of lung cancer may be a hangover from the end of the taboo on female smoking. But both sexes have quit in droves since the 1970s, so the death toll may fall in the future.
该研究领导人M.E.表示，现在做结论还为时尚早。 乐观地看，女性抽烟的时间比男性更晚。 直到二战后女性烟民的数量才开始接近男性烟民的数量。 女性吸烟禁忌解禁就造成了今天越来越多贫困妇女死于肺癌。 七十年代以后，男女烟民的数量都有明显下降；所以，死亡率以后还会降下来。
A pessimist would reply that the other big killer, obesity, keeps spreading, especially among the poor. “We've been saying for ages that it must have peaked, but it keeps going up,” says Dr Ezzati. Two decades ago, no state had an obesity rate above 15%. Now, 22 have passed the 25% mark. The counties where life expectancy has fallen are nearly all in the South or Appalachia, where huge deep-fried portions are the norm and waistlines are among America's widest. Neither are getting any smaller.
悲观地来看，肥胖不断蔓延，在贫困人口中尤其明显。这也是造成寿命缩短的另一个主要原因。 Dr ezzati说：“长期以来我们都认为肥胖率应该开始下降了，但现在却不断上升”。 20年前没有一个州的肥胖率超过15%。 现在有22个州的肥胖率超过了25%。 寿命缩短最严重的地区几乎都集中在南部地区，或是阿巴拉契亚地区。在这里，超大分量的油炸食品已经司空见惯，他们的腰围也是美国最粗的。 现在看来，食物的“尺寸”和腰围的尺寸都没有变小的迹象。
2、The rise of the Gulf
海湾崛起
Apr 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The Gulf is managing its wealth better during this boom than it did during the last one
比较两次繁荣期，这次海湾国家在财富管理方面有了长进。
MOST countries earn their keep through effort and ingenuity. Those of the Gulf owe their living to geological serendipity. The harder China works, the faster India grows, the higher oil prices climb.
大部分国家靠努力与智慧创造财富。但海湾国家靠大自然的馈赠就可以过得舒舒服服。中国人越是勤奋工作，印度经济增长的越快，那油价也会攀升得更高.
The Gulf swells with confidence or despair depending on the price of “Arabian light” or “Oman blend”. Five years ago, though up from its $9 low in the 1990s, the oil price stood at a mere $26 a barrel. Many of the Gulf's governments were indebted and insecure. Saudi Arabia was facing an al-Qaeda insurgency. Expatriates, used to a secure if sequestered life, tried not to think about the tanks parked outside their compounds. Now the same oil fetches over $100 a barrel and confidence has returned. The insurgency in Saudi Arabia has been quashed. The Gulf is once again a source of envy more than concern (see article).
海湾国家自信与否取决于“阿拉伯轻质石油”或“阿曼混合石油”的价格。五年前，油价虽然已从90年代每加仑9美元的低谷中走出，但是仅仅维持在每加仑26 美元的水平上。许多海湾国家政府面临债务和动荡。沙特面临基地组织的暴动。过去那些只要肯过隐居生活就可以确保其安全的流亡者，现在不得不考虑那些停在他 们院子旁边的坦克。如今油价达到每加仑100美元以上，海湾国家又牛起来了。沙特的暴动已被扫平。海湾国家又成了嫉妒而不仅仅是关注的中心。
Surely only good can come from so much cash? Hardly. In the 1970s the Gulf's money was a disaster for Latin America, for, recycled through Western banks, it caused a decade-long debt crisis. The Gulf itself suffered by inflicting stagflation on the West, thus causing a 20-year-long slump in oil prices. They built white elephants such as the King Khalid airport in Riyadh, one of whose terminals has been mothballed since the airport opened in 1983. They allowed a greedy few, many of them arms dealers, to pocket huge fortunes. They distorted their economies in the name of diversification, for example by growing wheat in the desert.
这么多现金肯定是有百利而无一害吗？不太可能。70年代海湾国家的财富对拉丁美洲来说是个灾难，这些钱被西方银行循环利用，结果造成了十年债务危机。海湾国家使西方陷入滞涨的痛苦（指海湾国家在70年代第四次中东战争期间，用抬高油价的办法抗议美国对 以色列的支持），但他们自己也不好受，因为这导致了持续20年的油价低迷。他们造了很多形象工程，比如利雅得的哈立德国王机场，而它的一座航站楼自 1983年刚开始启用的时候就被封闭。他们对贪婪的一小撮人（很多是军火商）把大量财富中饱私囊视而不见。经济在多元化的名义下被扭曲了，比如说在沙漠中 种植谷物.
A better Xanadu
3、更好的世外桃源
Are the Gulf countries handling their windfall any better this time? The sheer quantity of cash is hard to manage. It is too plentiful for small economies to spend, and has therefore added to the glut of global saving that is in part responsible for the financial excesses of recent years. Indeed, some economists see an analogy with the 1970s. Gulf petrodollars have been recycled not to improvident governments in Latin America but instead to improvident homebuyers in the uncreditworthy fringes of America.
这次海湾国家在管理他们的横财方面有什么进步吗？这么多钱可不是闹着玩的。对于小规模经济体来说，这些钱多的花不清，结果加剧了全球储蓄的供过于求，这种供过于求要为近年来过高的金融流动性负部分责任。事实上，一些经济学家已经看到了类似于70年代的现象。不同的是，这次海湾石油美元不再被循环利用到毫无远见的的拉美国家政府，而是美国那些处在无信用价值边缘的购房者。
The Gulf is doing its best to spend its windfall. Stately pleasure domes are springing up all along the coast. Saudi Arabia announces six, no seven!, new economic cities, which it hopes will create millions of jobs for its restive, youthful population. There are worrying echoes of the wasteful 1970s. But this time round, more of the spending is being done by private companies, with an eye to consumer demand, rather than by states.
海湾国家尽其所能的消费掉这笔横财。富丽堂皇的建筑如雨后春笋般出现在海岸边，沙特宣布建立7个新经济城市，它希望借此可以为懒散的年轻人提供就业机会。人们对重蹈70年代覆辙不无担忧。但这次更多的消费是由私人公司完成的，他们着眼于消费者需求，而不是政府意志.
Awash with capital, the Gulf countries need labour. Thanks to a liberal attitude to guest workers, in the UAE, for instance, over 90% of the private labour force is made up of foreigners. Some of the follies these Indians, Bangladeshis, Chinese and Filipinos build will not earn much return, but at least they help spread the wealth around. And now that American spending is faltering, a splurge is welcome. As Adam Smith said, outlays on “trinkets of frivolous utility” are what “keeps in continual motion the industry of mankind.”
海湾国家不缺资本，他们缺的是劳动力。还好他们对外籍劳工采取自由开放的态度，以阿联酋为例，超过90%的私有企业劳动力是外国人。印度人，孟加拉人，中 国人，菲律宾人建造的华而不实的建筑虽然不能带来多少回报，但至少有助于财富扩散。况且既然美国消费踌躇不前，那炫耀一下也未尝不可。正如亚当.斯密说的 "奢侈性需求"使"人类工业持续运转"。
Still, the Gulf's splurge might be better spent if governments were doing even less of the splurging. Despite tentative reforms, too much money remains in state hands. The Saudis have become friendlier to business, taking steps to liberalise the financial system, airlines and telecommunications. But the government is still too fond of its grandiose projects and too slow to get unglamorous things right. It takes an age, for example, to enforce a contract in the country's courts.
但是，如果政府的炫耀性建设再少一些的话，这种炫耀会是更好的消费。尽管进行了试验性改革，但大量财富仍在政府手中。沙特对商业更友好了，它已采取措施放 开金融业，航空业和电信业。但政府仍然好大喜功，而且迟迟做不好那些司空见惯的事，比如这个国家的法庭耗时甚长才使一个合同被强制执行。
By the same token, it would help if local currencies were allowed to strengthen. Currency reform is not just a way to constrain inflation, but also a means of redistributing spending. At present, the petrodollars are converted into local money at a fixed rate and doled out as governments see fit. With stronger local currencies the state would get fewer dirhams, dinars or riyals for every petrodollar. But Gulf residents would be able to buy more with their money, and guest workers could send more rupees home to families in Kerala.
出于同样的原因，允许本币升值也是有益的。货币改革不仅可以用来控制通货膨胀，也是一种重新分配财富的方法。现在的情况是石油美元以固定汇率兑换成本币， 然后由政府在他认为合适的时机进行少量分配。通过本币升值，政府在兑换石油美元时得到的本币变少了。但海湾地区的居民可以用同样的钱买更多的东西，外籍劳 工也可以向远在塔拉拉邦（印度的一个邦）的家庭汇更多的卢比。
There is another way to transfer economic initiative from governments to people. At present the Gulf states buy social peace by doling out generous benefits and subsidies, such as cheap housing and medical care, expanding the public payroll and forcing private companies to hire locals in the name of or Saudi-isation. Too many Gulf nationals receive a government pay cheque for a meaningless job, or owe their jobs in private firms to a hiring quota. They pretend to work and have neither the time nor the incentive to start businesses or acquire skills.
把经济主动权从政府转到民众手中还有一个办法。现在海湾国家靠慷慨的社会福利维持社会稳定，比如便宜的房屋和医疗服务，扩展财政供养人群，在"阿曼化"和 "沙特化"的名义下强制私有公司雇佣本地人。许多海湾国家的国民干着毫无意义的工作，领取国家发放的薪水，或者靠雇佣配额在私有公司得到工作。他们更喜欢 当雇员，不愿花时间也没有动力创业或是掌握实用技能。
Could there be a better way? Last winter, 604,000 Alaskans each pocketed a $1,654 cheque from the state's Permanent Fund, which invests Alaska's oil revenues on their behalf. Each year, the fund distributes a fraction of its profits, averaged over five years, to every resident. They do not have to work for it, and are free to spend it as they wish. This notion is as foreign to the Gulf as a glacier to the desert. But in a region that likes to impress people with outlandish projects, paying a simple dividend cheque to every Gulf national would be a more audacious venture than
the tallest new tower.
还有更好的出路吗？去年冬天，604000名阿拉斯加人每人从州永久基金获得1654美元，这个基金代表阿拉斯加人投资于阿拉斯加石油收益。五年来，这个 基金一直把部分利润平均分配给每个居民。阿拉斯加人不必为它工作，也可以自由支配收益。既然处在冰川地区的阿拉斯加可以这样做，那沙漠地区的海湾国家也可 以这样做。但在一个靠新奇的工程来取悦人民的地区，向每个人发放收益比建造世界第一高塔（在建的迪拜塔）要冒险的多。 |
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